Another Bumpy Session in Store for the Markets?

Posted by Prydextv on Jun. 13, 2013

driven by the prospects of central banks, process initiative, on uncertainty on economic prospects around the world. the includes the bank of japan the third prong stimulus was put off after the fall elections will be held later this 84. disappointed mashlth markets last week. disappointment about the policy initiatives they may have and uncertainties stemming from bernanke and the minutes from 8-22. we are looking at that time safe thampblgs dollar, it comes to a ten-week low versus the yen. i think people thought the dollar would have risen out of what we seen from asia. we seen volatility in gold, too. what is the safe haven trade now, there one? i would say this is not a safe haven move. this is a little more nuance. there is a carry unwind going on. that's a little disturbing. deep liquid foreign exchange markets. the up against the euro about 1.9% today. it's also up against the u.s. dollar, investors were short the yen, because it was cheap to borrow now are covering the@ trade. so the action is really a byproduct of what's going on with the yen. consistent with the lack of the safe haven trading, we don't have gold skyrocketing. gold is only at 1385. what happens if there is a surprise in the jobless claims number for the last four weeks, we have been between 352 to 355,000 roughly, which is down from even a year ago sharply. could we see a surprise there? and what would that do to the markets? we could see a surprise. it's a high frequency indicator as you know. here's what i would expect, knee jerk would be risk off and rally because of the implications regarding the tapering time table by the federal reserve. if the jobless claim is stronger than expected, you might have a little bit knee jerk up and then the reverse action trading off a little bit as investors again worry about the timing of tapering, which, frankly, i think taper is going to happen when it happens. it is based on the data now for good reasons. the economy is getting stronger on a virtuous cycle. we had all indices in the red yesterday, when you look at the futures board this morning, it was dow's first three-day losing streak in recent memory. whats to the market psychology if we are in the red for four days, all of this week, how long will this pullback last. what are you expecting? here's what i would say about the market psychology. this is largely an emotional response. market itself don't change the fundamentals don't change in a sex-and-a-half hour trading session. ...

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